Co-Integration Analysis of Annual Time Series of Selected Statistics of the Police of the Czech Republic
Dr. Zdeněk Kovařík, CSc.
The essay examines the relation between the number of policemen and detected and cleared up crime in the Czech Republic.It focuses on a more advanced analysis of these indicators, where the analysis is conceived in a more complex way and time series are analysed both in mutual relations and as the whole system. Due to the complex nature of the problem it is obvious that there are many other data that influence the relations of the given variables and that cannot be exposed in details, let aloneinstalled into a meaningful system. It is apparent that primarily the service and the quality of work of individual policemen as well as the management system within the Police of the Czech Republic cannot be ignored. We can assume that if we included such variables into the analysis model in a quantified way, we would obtain more appropriate results than in the models containing two indicators only.
Key words: number of policemen, cleared up crime, detected crime, one-equation model, two-equation model, three-equation model.