The Prognosis of the Prison Population in the Czech Republic Using the Cohort-Component Model
Mgr. Martin Koňařík, Department of Security Policy and Crime Prevention Ministry of Interior, Department of Demography and Geo-Science Faculty of Charles University in Prague

The knowledge of the size of the prison population and its structure is for the state administration very important because it allows planning the future necessary expenses and investments in the prison system. Furthermore, this knowledge is critical, as in the case of adverse development it will enable the responsible authorities to react in time and avoid unfavourable development. This article summarizes in general some knowledge of predicting prison populations and it illustrates on a simple example the possibilities of these prognoses.
Keywords: prognosis, prison populations, prisoners, security.