Resume
Scenario-Making Process – the Chosen Methods Comparison
Ing. Stanislav Burian, Ph.D.
The paper is a continuation of a previously published article “Scenarios – the Management Instrument for Uncertain Future” which defines scenarios as an alternative approach to strategic decision making and which contains general principles of the scenario creating. This text analyzes three processes of the scenarios creation methods by three experts. These methods are implicitly compared. On the basis of the comparison, it is found out that significant differences within three researched approaches do not exist. That fact allows formulating of the generalized method. This generalized method reflects the sequence of the three steps: at first, identification of the key factors that influence future, at second, content creation and development of scenarios, and at third, formulation recommendations and reactions for decision-making authorities which respond to possible future developments within the scenarios.
Keywords: Future, scenario methodology, uncertainly, decision-making, scenarios, scenario planning, scenarios creating.