Resume
The Future of Insurgency in Pakistan: The Case of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Bc. Klára Smiešková, Masaryk University, Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Political Science, Student
Bc. Dana Palečková, Masaryk University, Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Political Science, Student
Abstract
This paper examines the evolution of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and assesses how its capacity and capabilities may develop in the medium-term horizon of 2026–2031. It analyzes the TTP’s goals, structure, tactics, propaganda, and alliances, while evaluating Pakistan’s counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy and regional dynamics. Using NATO’s alternative futures analysis (AFA), the paper identifies Afghan Taliban support and Pashtun civilian support as decisive variables and constructs four scenarios: Hollow Insurgency, Strategic Decline, Homegrown Resistance, and Rising Emirate.
Keywords: Alternative futures analysis, TTP, insurgency, COIN, Pakistan.