Resume<\/p>\n
The Future of Insurgency in Pakistan: The Case of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)<\/strong><\/p>\n Bc. Kl\u00e1ra Smie\u0161kov\u00e1, Masaryk University, Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Political Science, Student<\/p>\n Bc. Dana Pale\u010dkov\u00e1, Masaryk University, Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Political Science, Student<\/p>\n Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n This paper examines the evolution of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and assesses how its capacity and capabilities may develop in the medium-term horizon of 2026\u20132031. It analyzes the TTP\u2019s goals, structure, tactics, propaganda, and alliances, while evaluating Pakistan\u2019s counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy and regional dynamics. Using NATO\u2019s alternative futures analysis (AFA), the paper identifies Afghan Taliban support and Pashtun civilian support as decisive variables and constructs four scenarios: Hollow Insurgency, Strategic Decline, Homegrown Resistance, and Rising Emirate.<\/p>\n